A commentator described as a Russian ultranationalist has claimed Russia is facing either a "shameful peace" with Ukraine or a decisive military action against the war-torn nation. The commentator warned that Vladimir Putin's troops are "doomed to defeat", according to a new update from the prestigious US think tank Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
It reported the unnamed military commentator saying Russia can't produce enough interceptor missiles to compete with the West amid an increase in what it called "Western-backed" drone attacks, which are only due to increase. The commentator said Russia needs to agree to a "shameful peace" or defeat Ukraine through a strategic offensive. However, the commentor added in a rare glimpse of criticism against the political class in the country, the Russian leadership is not politically ready to conduct such an offensive.
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However, the Kremlin is not politically ready to conduct such an attack, they said.
The ISW wrote: "The commentator claimed that the size of such strikes will only increase, and that Russia cannot produce enough interceptor missiles to compete with Western economic potential and is thus 'doomed to defeat' and forced to immediately 'solve the problem of ending the war'.
"The commentator claimed that Russia must either agree to a 'shameful peace' or decisively defeat Ukraine through a strategic offensive, but that the Russian leadership is not politically ready to conduct such an offensive, and is therefore already working toward a 'shameful peace'."
According to a 2025 report, Russia produces roughly 840 to 1,020 high-end ground-launched 9M723 (Iskander) and air-launched Kh-47M2 Kinzhal missiles annually.
It indicated a 15–40% increase in production for specific short-range ballistic missiles, with monthly output estimated at around 60–70 Iskander-M and 10–15 Kinzhal missiles.
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In comparison, the UK alone supplied Ukraine with over 1,000 air defences in 2025.
Just last week, another Russian ultranationalist military blogger said Moscow's forces will not be able to reverse their current unfavourable situation on the battlefield in the coming months.
They said Kyiv's "rather successful" counterattacks have prevented Russia from pursuing offensive efforts this year so far.
Troops are also grappling with significant communications problems after Starlink was blocked, and due to a shortage of electronic warfare systems, they added.