Horror simulation shows exactly how nuclear WW3 unfolds – 2.6m dead immediately

A terrifying simulation has revealed how a conflict between Russia and the United States could escalate from conventional fighting to all-out nuclear war. The simulation – utilising data from NUKEMAP, based on real force postures, targets and fatality estimates – shows Russia, in the hopes of halting a US-NATO advance, launching a nuclear warning shot from a base near the city of Kaliningrad, the semi-exclave on the Black Sea, which is separated from the rest of Russia by Lithuania and Poland. NATO then retaliates with a single tactical nuclear airstrike. As the nuclear threshold is crossed, fighting escalates into a tactical nuclear war across Europe.

Russia sends 300 nuclear warheads via aircraft and short-range missiles to hit NATO bases and advancing troops in countries including Poland, Germany, Belgium, Italy, Turkey and the South-east of the UK. This area of the UK hosts some of our most critical military and nuclear assets and is home to major NATO and RAF bases, including RAF Lakenheath and Mildenhall in Suffolk and RAF Marham in Norfolk.

NATO then responds with some 180 nuclear warheads via aircraft. In just three hours, the simulation predicts 2.6 million immediate casualties.

With Europe now destroyed, NATO launches a strategic nuclear strike of 600 warheads from US land and submarine-based missiles aimed at Russian nuclear forces. Before losing its weapon systems, Russia launches on warning, responding with missiles launched from silos, road-mobile vehicles and submarines. Over the course of around 45 minutes, the immediate casualties are estimated at 3.4 million.

Next, with the aim of inhibiting the enemy's recovery, Russia and NATO each target the other's 30 most-populated cities and economic centres, using five to 10 warheads on each city, depending on population size. In the US, this would include New York City, Los Angeles, Chicago, Houston and Phoenix, and in Russia, Moscow, St. Petersburg and Novosibirsk. By doing so, the number of immediate casualties skyrockets, reaching a staggering 85.3 million in over 45 minutes.

In the end, the simulation – created in 2019, three years before Vladimir Putin invaded Ukraine – predicts a total of 91.5 million immediate casualties, including 34.1 million fatalities and 57.4 million injuries, resulting from the series of nuclear exchanges. Deaths from nuclear fallout and other long-term effects would significantly increase this estimate, its authors warned.

Indeed, the 1986 Chernobyl nuclear disaster alone released an unprecedented volume of radioactive isotopes into the atmosphere, contaminating vast regions of Europe. While only two plant workers died from the physical explosion and fires on the night of April 26, 134 emergency workers and staff developed Acute Radiation Syndrome (ARS), of whom 28 died within the first three months.

Wind carried the fallout across Belarus (which received roughly 60% of the Soviet fallout), Russia, Ukraine and much of Western and Northern Europe. The most significant and well-documented consequence was a sharp increase in pediatric thyroid cancer, linked to the ingestion of contaminated milk. Between 6,000 and 20,000 cases were diagnosed among children and adolescents at the time. Clean-up workers ("liquidators") who received high cumulative radiation doses experienced elevated risks of leukaemia and cataracts, as well as potential long-term increases in cardiovascular diseases.

A continental nuclear war would trigger global destruction completely dwarfing the Chernobyl disaster, creating an apocalyptic "nuclear winter" capable of wiping out most of humanity through mass starvation. Unlike the localised reactor fallout, simultaneous military strikes would cause total institutional collapse, rendering the survival of European civilisation virtually impossible.